CollegeBowlProjections.com

All year we have heard that the Pac-10 was down. They were considered the 4^th or 5^th best conference in America.

Now that they are 3-0 in bowl games and USC is a huge favorite to beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl we must pose the question, Are they really down?

*Arizona entered the Vegas Bowl as an underdog to the 16^th ranked BYU Cougars. Senior QB Willie Tuitama lead the Wildcats to a 31-21 win.

*California played Miami in the Emerald Bowl. They did what they needed to do and took care of business. Miami is a team that could have rallied around a young QB and beaten the favored Bears but Cal was able to send senior QB, Nate Longshore, out with a victory.

*The Oregon Ducks also had a tough task in front of them. They were facing the 13^th ranked Cowboys from Oklahoma State. OSU had only lost 3 games (Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma) all of which were in the top 5 at one point or another during the season. The Ducks got down early but were able to run the ball up and down the field in the second half. In the end Oregon won the game going away.

For the moment we are going withhold our judgments on the Pac-10. However we are beginning to believe they are much better than we originally gave them credit for. Oregon State has a chance to cement that thought with a win over 20^th ranked Pitt in the Sun Bowl.

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Most college football fans would argue the Big 12 was the best conference this season.  With three one-loss teams (Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech) the conference appeared to be the cream of the crop.  Those teams haven’t played their bowl games yet and we’ll see how they fair against the other best teams in the nation but the Big 12 is on a rocky start this bowl season.

Missouri barely got past Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl.  Chase Daniel threw a career high three interceptions in the game and couldn’t get past  the Wildcats until overtime.  Missouri went into the game as a 12-point favorite.

Oklahoma State took a beating against the Oregon Ducks in the Holiday Bowl.  The Ducks had two one hundred yard rushers in the game as they scored 35 points in the second half.  Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter couldn’t get anything going on the ground and finished with only 37 yards.  Oklahoma State went into the game as a three point favorite and lost by 11 points.

Did we overestimate the power of the Big 12 this season?  Were Missouri and Oklahoma State a bit overrated and the top teams will still prove their dominance this bowl season?

It’s still early too tell which conference will win the bowl conference records this year but we have two surprises at the top.  The Big East and Pac-10 conference are leading the race at 3-0.  These two conferences arguably were the two weakest BCS conferences this season but their bowl games performances are proving the opposite.  The ACC was the “deepest” conference this year but are only 3-3 this bowl season.  They’ve managed victories against Navy, Wisconsin(Big Ten 0-2), and Nevada(WAC 1-4).

Bowl games begin to be played at all hours these next couple of days. We’ll finally find out which conferences will raise to the top.

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Head Coach Randy Shannon fired Patrick Nix as the offensive coordinator for the Miami Hurricanes this week.  Nix was cordial to Shannon on the way out but also said he wanted to play a more wide-open, no-huddle type of offense and Shannon wasn’t willing to do play that style.

Isn’t that what most football fans like to hear?  A more exciting offense?  A way to isolate the Hurricanes athletes against their opponents?  Nix’s offensive philosophy sounded like a better solution for the team.  Is Shannon going to hire a offensive coordinator who wants to run the ball and eat up time on the clock?  Do the fans want to see such an offense? Don’t the Hurricanes want to excite players to come to Miami because they play a wide-open, no-huddle type offense?  The type of offense the Hurricanes played during their glory years.

CollegeBowlProjections.com decided to take a look at the numbers to see if they warranted a dismissal of Nix.

2008 ACC Offensive Statistic Rankings

Points per game: Miami 2nd
Offensive yards per game: Miami 5th

These don’t look like horrible numbers.  Especially if you consider Nix was working with two freshman quarterbacks as the starter.  We decided to look at the defensive statistics to see if how they compared to the offensive side of the ball.

2008 ACC Defensive Statistic Rankings

Points allowed: Miami 11th
Yards allowed per game: Miami 7th

Are we missing something?  Since Randy Shannon fired the defensive coordinator last year he had to lay the blame on the offense?

The most alarming stat was the amount of interceptions the Hurricanes created this season.  The defense was only able to pick off opposing quarterbacks four times this season.  Compare that number to 26 times for the Boston College Eagles and you can see why the Eagles won their ACC division and the Hurricanes didn’t.  If the Hurricanes had half the interceptions of Boston College they would of easily won three more games.

Apparently Shannon is laying the blame on the offense this season.  Next year, Shannnon won’t have any place to look but at himself if the Hurricanes don’t turn it around.

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We are still early in the Bowl season but something has stood out to us so far, the senior quarterbacks are willing their teams to victory in the post season. Let’s look at some examples:

Pat White threw for a career high 332 yards and 3 TD’s and rushing for 55 yards while only throwing 1 interception to lead his team to a 31-30 victory over North Carolina in the Meineke Bowl.

Willie Tuitama capped off his college career with a 31-21 upset of BYU in the Vegas Bowl. Tui passed for 325 yards and 2 TD’s without throwing an interception.

The surprising start for Nate Longshore for California in the Emerald Bowl worked out well for the Bears. Longshore did not put up great numbers but was able to lead his team for a winning TD with just over 2 minutes to go in the game.

Much like Longshore, Heisman contender Chase Daniel struggled against Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl. In the end he lead his team to an overtime victory. It was the poise of Daniel that made the difference late in the game.

Finally, Mike Teel capped off his Rutgers career with a win against NC State in the Papajohns Bowl. Teel looked sharp throwing for 319 yards and 2 TD’s while throwing 1 interception.

This trend should continue throughout the Bowl season as we expect teams with senior QB’s to excel.

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ESPN.com is reporting LSU will name Tennessee’s defensive coordinator John Chavis as their new defensive coordinator.  LSU had a job opening since co-defensive coordinator Bradley Dale Peveto is leaving for the head coaching position at Northwestern State and co-defensive coordinator Doug Mallory is rumored to be leaving to New Mexico to be their new defensive coordinator.

John Chavis was available since Monte Kiffin will be taking over the defense for his son Lane at Tennessee.  The hire appears to be a great selection for LSU as you examine the numbers this year.  Tennessee ranked 3rd in the SEC in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed.  Tennessee also ranked 11th in points and 3rd in yards in the nation.  The defense was very good considering Tennessee had a losing season.  Compared to LSU, Chavis defense was far better this season.  LSU ranked 9th in points in the SEC(36th in the nation) and 11th in points(65th in the nation).

We wanted to know if this was a usual year between Tennessee and LSU’s defense.  We knew LSU had some incredible defensive seasons and wanted to compare the last four years.  Here is what we found:

2007 Season

SEC total points: Tennessee 10th, LSU 2nd
SEC total yards: Tennessee 11th, LSU 1st

2006 Season

SEC total points: Tennessee 8th, LSU 1st
SEC total yards: Tennessee 9th, LSU 1st

2005 Season

SEC total points: Tennessee 6th, LSU 4th
SEC total yards: Tennessee 6th, LSU 2nd

2004 Season

SEC total points: Tennessee 7th, LSU 3rd
SEC total yards: Tennessee 7th, LSU 2nd

This is a no-brainer hire if you just look at the 2008 season however looking deeper into the numbers it looks like the LSU Tigers might not be upgrading on their defense.  Tennessee hasn’t even been close to LSU’s defensive numbers between 2004-2007.  Perhaps John Chavis will bring new energy to the defensive side of the ball but LSU fans should be concerned if they will return to their defensive dominance.

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The Auburn Tigers athletic department has been receiving a bunch of heat for hiring Gene Chizik as their new football head coach.  Eyes will be on Chizik as he hires his coaching staff.

Gene Chizik hired Gus Malzahn as the new offensive coordinator at Auburn for the 2009 season. Malzahn had been the co-offensive coordinator and assistant head coach at Tulsa.  He leaves Tulsa with two very impressive offensive seasons.  He will get his opportunity to prove if his no-huddle offense can transfer to the SEC(A chance he didn’t receive at Arkansas in 2006).  The Tigers will need his offensive skills after only averaging 17 points a game during the 2008 season.

Let’s look at the numbers and see how productive Malzahn’s offense was at Tulsa.

2006 Tulsa Offensive Statistics (Before Malzahn arrived at Tulsa)

27.7 points per game (37th in the nation)
162 rushing yards per game (36th in the nation)
226 passing yards per game (37th in the nation)
394 total yards per game (24th in the nation)

2007 Tulsa Offensive Statistics (Malzahn offense)

41.1 points per game (7th in the nation)
172 rushing yards per game (42nd in the nation)
371 passing yards per game (3rd in the nation)
559 total yards per game (1st in the nation)

2008 Tulsa Offensive Statistics (Malzahn offense)

47.4 points per game (2nd in the nation)
254 rushing yards per game (2nd in the nation)
310 passing yards per game (7th in the nation)
565 total yards per game (2nd in the nation)

The most impressive result we see is the rushing yards improving from the year before.  This isn’t a one trick pony offense.  It gets results from both the passing and rushing game.  The other big factor is the consistency and improvement in the second season.  It’s evident teams were still unable to stop the offense after playing against Tulsa the next season.  We’ve seen many coordinators fool you the first time but can’t do it the next year(Gary Crowton at LSU).

Many have complained about Gene Chizik’s resume but you can’t argue Malzahn’s efficiency as an offensive coordinator.

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