Is anyone outside of Alabama or LSU fans excited about a rematch in the BCS National Championship Game?  I don’t think anyone would mind a playoff and the play on the field resulted in a rematch.  This is our playoff scenario that we wish was starting in two weeks.

Rules:

• 16-team playoff
• Any FBS conference champion ranked in the top 25 of the BCS rankings receives an automatic bid into the playoffs.
• The remaining at-large spots are filled by the next highest ranked teams in the BCS rankings.
• Seedings are determined by BCS ranking.
• First round games would be played on Friday, December 9 and Saturday, December 10, 2011.
• Second round games would be played on Saturday, December 17, 2011.
• First and second round games are played at the home stadium of the higher-seeded team.
• Semifinal games would be played on Saturday, December 31, 2011.
• The National Championship Game would be played on Saturday, January 7, 2012.
• The semifinal games and championship game are played at BCS bowl locations on a rotating basis.

Here are our first round games.

#16 West Virginia at #1 LSU – It’s a rematch!  I can see BCS lovers complaining about this game.

#15 Southern Miss at #2 Alabama – The Crimson Tide relaxed at home last weekend while Southern Miss hit the road and demolished previously unbeaten Houston.  Will the momentum continue in Tuscaloosa?

#14 TCU at #3 Oklahoma State – The Cowboys love the playoff because they now have a shot at the championship game.  TCU feels the same way since they weren’t able to qualify for a BCS game.

#13 Clemson at #4 Stanford – The surprise ACC champion travels to Palo Alto to take on the pre-season Heisman favorite, Andrew Luck.

#12 Baylor at #5 Oregon – RG3 gets to run and gun against the fastest offense in the nation.  Vegas will probably set the over/under at 85.

#11 Virginia Tech at #6 Arkansas – Instead of being shut out of the BCS due to the ridiculous “two-teams-per-conference” rule, Arkansas gets a shot at the championship like the rest of the top teams.  Virginia Tech must rebound from the beat-down they received from Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and prove they really deserved that Sugar Bowl invitation.

#10 Wisconsin at #7 Boise State – The Broncos finally get a chance to host a BCS-conference team on the blue turf.  We know about Boise State’s offense, but let’s see if Chris Petersen’s defense can handle the steamroller that is the Wisconsin offensive line and Montee Ball.

#9 South Carolina at #8 Kansas State – Bill Snyder’s Wildcats get to prove they deserved to be invited to a BCS bowl this year while hosting Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks.

Playoff bids by conference:

SEC: 4
Big 12: 3
Pac-12: 2
ACC: 2
MWC: 2
Big Ten: 1
Big East: 1
C-USA: 1

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UCLA @ #9 Oregon – This is a no brainer. It would take a huge let down by the Ducks to allow UCLA to be within 30 points of them. It would be fun, however, for Neuheisel to get to the Rose Bowl after he has already been dismissed. That won’t happen! Pick: Oregon 47 UCLA 10

# 24 Southern Miss @ #6 Houston – We really like the way that head coach Larry Fedora has built this team. They have ridden their balanced offense and solid defense to a 10 win season. Houston, on the other hand, wants to ride their high octane passing game to the Sugar Bowl. This could end up being an interesting game. Pick: Houston 42 S. Miss 31

#14 Georgia vs #1 LSU – Georgia has come a long way from their 0-2 start. They have really developed behind the play of sophomore QB Aaron Murray. They will have their biggest test of the season as they face the LSU defense. If they can move the ball they have a chance because they have a very solid rush defense. This will be a closer game than most expect. Pick: LSU 24 Georgia 17

#10 Oklahoma @ #3 Oklahoma State – These teams are very similar, great offenses with suspect defenses. Sooner QB Landry Jones may be a better pro prospect than Brandon Weeden but Weeden has had a better year. Both teams also boast great skill players. This game comes down to 1 thing, home field advantage. Pick: Cowboys 38 Sooners 31

#5 Virginia Tech vs #20 Clemson – We have the Hokies that are rolling versus the fading Tigers. Hokies don’t get beat by Clemson again. Pick: VT 24 Clemson 14

#15 Wisconsin vs #13 Michigan State – This is the toughest game on the board for us to pick. Most analysts have badgers in this game but we really like the way that the Spartans have played lately. The MSU defense has to slow RB Montee Ball and give their offense a chance. We think they can. Pick: MSU 31 Wisconsin 28

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The Favorites:

Trent Richardson – Trent Richardson may have clinched the trophy with his 203 rushing yards against Auburn. He also added a highlight reel run that has been replayed 1 million times on the 4 letter network. His consistency makes him the favorite.

Andrew Luck – Luck has been the favorite most of the year but it has mainly been about the hype. He is widely considered the best player in America and for that reason he will get a lot of votes. He has put up good numbers but nothing earth shattering. He is still the #1 pick in the draft but it appears he will finish #2 in the Heisman.

The Contenders:

Robert Griffin III – RG3 may be the most exciting player in the country to watch. At one point in the season he had thrown more TD’s than incompletions. His stats are ridiculous as he has accounted for 41 TD’s and over 4200 total yards. The only thing holding him back from winning the Heisman is his teams’ record; put RG3 on a 1 loss team and he wins in a landslide.

Matt Barkley – Does someone want to explain to me why USC was not promoting Barkley for the Heisman sooner? He has had a better season statistically than Luck and if it were not for probation he would be playing for a chance to go to the Rose bowl. Unfortunately the campaign started way too late to win.

Case Keenum – This guy should be a favorite in our opinion. He has thrown 43 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and 4700 yards. He has also led his team to an undefeated record. We are not sure why the media is not hyping Case for the Heisman.

The Longshots:

Monte Ball – This guy scores a touchdown every 8.5 carries. If not for a couple of “Hail Mary” losses Wisconsin would be undefeated and Ball would be in New York.

Brandon Weeden – Huge numbers on a great offense; will split votes with his WR Justin Blackmon.

Kellen Moore – Winningest QB in NCAA history. He needed an undefeated season to be in the running.

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We are in the final week of football games before the BCS games are determined.  Let’s look at all the crucial games and figure out what happens if each team wins the game.

SEC Championship Game

LSU defeats Georgia

• LSU plays for the BCS championship against Alabama
• Georgia is eliminated from a BCS bid.

Georgia defeats LSU

• Georgia receives a bid to the Sugar Bowl and becomes the third SEC team in the BCS games.
• LSU plays for the BCS championship against Alabama.
• This eliminates Michigan, Boise State, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State from receiving an at-large bid.

Big Ten Championship Game

Wisconsin defeats Michigan State

• Wisconsin receives a bid to the Rose Bowl.
• Michigan State most likely drops below Michigan in the BCS rankings (Don’t forget the Spartans defeated the Wolverines this season 28-14) and is eliminated from a BCS bid.

Michigan State defeats Wisconsin

• Michigan State receives a bid to the Rose Bowl.
• Wisconsin is eliminated from a BCS bid.

Pac-12 Championship Game

Oregon defeats UCLA

• Oregon receives a bid to the Rose Bowl.
• UCLA is 6-7 and hopes they can receive an exemption to be invited to a bowl game.

UCLA defeats Oregon

• This will be the biggest upset of the season. This isn’t happening.
• UCLA will receive a bid to the Rose Bowl.
• Oregon is eliminated from a BCS bid.
• This isn’t happening.

ACC Championship Game

Virginia Tech defeats Clemson

• Virginia Tech receives a bid to the Orange Bowl.
• Clemson is eliminated from a BCS bid.

Clemson defeats Virginia Tech

• Clemson receives a bid to the Orange Bowl.
• Virginia Tech has an outside chance of a BCS at-large bid if Clemson jumps ahead of Michigan and keeps the Wolverines out of the Top 14.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State defeats Oklahoma

• Oklahoma State receives a bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
• Three losses will eliminate Oklahoma from a BCS bid.

Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State

• Oklahoma receives a bid to the Fiesta Bowl.
• Oklahoma State prays Michigan doesn’t reach the Top 14 in the BCS rankings and receives a BCS at-large bid.

Connecticut at Cincinnati

Cincinnati defeats Connecticut

• Cincinnati ties for the Big East championship with Louisville.
• Cincinnati hopes West Virginia loses at South Florida because Cincinnati has the tie-breaker over Louisville by defeating the Cardinals 25-16 at home this season.

Connecticut defeats Cincinnati

• Cincinnati BCS bid chances are over.
• Louisville wins the Big East because they have the tie-breaker over West Virginia by defeating the Mountaineers 38-35 earlier in the season and will receive a bid to the Orange Bowl.

West Virginia at South Florida

West Virginia defeats South Florida

• West Virginia ties for the Big East championship and prays for Cincinnati to win as well.
• West Virginia most likely will have the highest BCS ranking and will become the Big East champion and will receive a bid to the Orange Bowl.

South Florida defeats West Virginia

• West Virginia is eliminated from a BCS bid.
• Louisville or Cincinnati wins the Big East.

Southern Mississippi at Houston

Houston defeats Southern Mississippi

• Houston wins the Conference USA and receives a bid to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.
• Boise State chances to receive a BCS bid are slim to none.

Southern Mississippi defeats Houston

• Houston is eliminated from a BCS bid.
• Boise State receives a bid to the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl.

As you can see there are many teams still in the thick of receiving a BCS bid even though the championship game has already been determined.  This should be a great weekend of football.

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This week should give us a lot more clarity on where teams will land in the bowl game picture. The majority of this weeks games will have some kind of bowl implication. We are going to touch briefly on the games that will most impact the BCS scenarios that we outlined earlier this week.

#3 Arkansas @ #1 LSU – LSU seems like a lock for the BCS Championship game regardless of what happens here. Arkansas needs to win this game convincingly if they want a chance at the title game. This is a classic case of great offense versus great defense. We are taking the defensive juggernaut at home. LSU 27 Arkansas 24

#2 Alabama @ #24 Auburn – This game could secure a title birth for the Crimson Tide. Nick Saban will put this game on the back of Trent Richardson in hopes that they get to the title game and get Richardson a Heisman Trophy. Auburn doesn’t have much to play for other than pride. We don’t think Pride will be enough here. Pick: Alabama 37 Auburn 21

#5 Virginia Tech @ Virginia – This is a year where good defenses and solid running games are rising to the top of the standings. The Hokies are one of those teams. Va Tech has an outside chance at the Championship game so they will be fired up. Virginia is a surprise team that has shocked top 25 teams Georgia Tech and Florida State. The pressure finally gets to a young team here. Pick: Virginia Tech 27 Virginia 16

#22 Notre Dame @ #6 Stanford – The Cardinal are mathematically still in the title race but realistically things would have to go very wrong for several other teams for that to happen. They are pissed off that they are the 4^th 1 loss team and will look to make a statement as they host the Irish on Saturday. Notre Dame has made great improvements throughout the season, were it not for a couple of crazy losses early where they outplayed their opponent, they could be playing for a BCS bid. The reality is… they are a year away. Pick: Stanford 44 Notre Dame 31

#8 Houston @ Tulsa – Tulsa has played 3 games verses top 10 teams and has been beaten up in each of them. They are a solid team that is undefeated in conference play.  Houston is one win away from a spot in the BCS. Case Keenum is still shooting for the Heisman as well so there should be no letdown. Tulsa is good… Houston is better. Houston 49 Tulsa 34

Ohio State @ #15 Michigan – The Buckeyes have dominated this rivalry for years! This should all change this weekend as the Wolverines host Ohio State. The Buckeyes have struggled to put points on the board while Michigan has been playing great defense. Throw in the excitement of Denard Robinson and the possibility of a BCS game and Michigan is the clear favorite. Pick: Michigan 31 Ohio State 14

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Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Oregon losing over the weekend has created chaos in the BCS picture.  Let’s take a look at the BCS rankings and figure out who is a contender and who isn’t.

1. LSU Tigers – The Tigers are a near lock to reach the title game.  Even if they lose to Arkansas or Georgia they shouldn’t drop below number 2 in the rankings.  It will take a blowout loss for voters to drop them lower.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide – Best case scenario is LSU cruises to victory against Arkansas and Georgia.  The Tide still needs to get past Auburn this week.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks – Defeat LSU and you get to play them again in the title game as long as you defeat Georgia in the SEC championship.  BCS bid is gone if they lose to LSU.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys – Defeat the Oklahoma Sooners at home and you’re looking at the Fiesta Bowl.  BCS title game is pretty much dead.
5. Virginia Tech Hokies – They must get past Virginia this week and revenge their loss to Clemson earlier this season to win the ACC championship.  Lose either game and it’s unlikely they get a BCS at-large bid.
6. Stanford Cardinal – Stanford should be the first at-large bid as long as they can get past Notre Dame this week.  We see them in the Sugar Bowl.
7. Boise State Broncos – The Broncos are one of the top teams in the final at-large bid selection.  Their ranking is high but their only solid victory is against Georgia this season.  Losing the Mountain West Conference is really going to hurt their chances.
8. Houston Cougars – The Cougars are in if they can get past Tulsa and Southern Mississippi (if they beat Tulsa to advance to the Conference USA championship) in the next couple of weeks. Those are two tough teams that will give them trouble.
9. Oklahoma Sooners – Defeating Oklahoma State will put them in the Fiesta Bowl.  If they lose, three losses should count them out of an at-large bid.
10. Oregon Ducks – Defeating the Oregon State Beavers and winning the Pac-12 championship game will put the Ducks in the Rose Bowl.
11. Kansas State Wildcats – Who would of guessed the Wildcats would be in the running for an at-large bid?  The Wildcats must hope for an Oklahoma State victory against the Sooners and show they’re more sexy than Boise State and Michigan to get the invite.
12. South Carolina Gamecocks – No BCS bid this season.  SEC teams above them will represent.
13. Georgia Bulldogs – The Bulldogs move into the Sugar Bowl if they win the SEC championship game.  Boise State’s resume goes way up if they defeated the SEC champion.
14. Michigan State Spartans – Win the Big Ten championship game and they go to the Rose Bowl.
15. Michigan Wolverines – The Wolverines have a great shot to get invited as an at-large bid.  They should move ahead several teams before the end of the season if they can get past Ohio State.   They should reach the top 14 and become eligible for invitation. We have them in the Sugar Bowl right now.
16. Wisconsin Badgers – Defeat Penn State and Michigan State to advance to the Rose Bowl.
17. Clemson Tigers – The Tigers are falling fast but can still reach the Orange Bowl winning the ACC championship game.
18. Baylor Bears – A great victory against the Sooners but their BCS chances are over.
19. Penn State Nittany Lions – Defeat Wisconsin and Michigan State to advance to the Rose Bowl.
20. TCU Horned Frogs – Losing to SMU kills the Horned Frogs chances of being in the mix for an at-large bid.
21. Nebraska Cornhuskers – The Cornhuskers will be bowling outside of the BCS this season.
22. Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Don’t forget about the luck of the Irish.  If they can win at Stanford this week and they might be in the at-large bid mix.
23. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – We predict they will be in the Belk Bowl.
24. Auburn Tigers – The Tigers can really put a wrench in the BCS title game if they can defeat Alabama this week.  We predict they will travel to the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
25. Texas Longhorns – Welcome to the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.

Note: Where is the Big East team that gets an automatic bid in the BCS?  We need a playoff!

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This week does not have any “Marquee Match-ups” so we will make picks on the games that we feel impact the bowl games the most. We can all relax just a little this weekend before the huge games of next week.

Impact Games of the Week

#16 Nebraska @ #18 Michigan – Both the teams are still fighting for bowl positions. This game will boil down to which running QB does a better job managing the game. Taylor Martinez has improved his passing in the last few games and is now truly a duel threat. Denard Robinson, on the other hand, is still a liability in the passing game. Both defenses will hold their own but we like Nebraska in a close one. Pick: Nebraska 28 Michigan 27

Cincinnati @ Rutgers – The Bearcats control their own destiny in the Big East. They need to win 2 out of their last 3 games and they are the BCS representative out of their conference. Rutgers, however, is playing for pride and bowl positioning outside of the BCS. Both teams are solid but not spectacular. The real difference will be the experience of Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros. Pick: Cincy 31 Rutgers 24

Southern Methodist @ #11 Houston – On paper this game should not be close. Houston should beat SMU going away; however, this could be a trap game for the Cougars. Next week Houston travels to play Tulsa which is undefeated in conference play. Take into consideration that SMU has beaten TCU this season and you have the making of an upset. On the other hand, Houston should be focused as they are in position to make their first ever BCS bowl game. Pick: Cougars 41 SMU 27

#5 Oklahoma @ #22 Baylor – This will be an interesting game as it boasts 2 of the top QB’s in the nation. Landry Jones will be without his favorite receiver Ryan Broyles so Kenny Stills will need to become that go-to-guy. RGIII will have his full complement of weapons and the home field advantage. We see a lot of points going up on the board in this one. Pick: Sooners 45 Baylor 38

Upset of the Week

#13 Kansas State @ #23 Texas – All year the odds makers have dogged KSU. The wildcats have been underdogs in the majority of their games. This week is no different as the Longhorns are favored by 9.5. This is another week where we think the consistency of the KSU run game is the difference. By the way, we love the way Collin Klein plays the game. Pick: Kansas State 34 Texas 24 

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The Biggest Winner – Oklahoma State Cowboys

The Cowboys steamrolled into Lubbock, Texas humbling the Texas Tech Red Raiders by defeating them 66 to 6 and showing the national audience they plan to be one of the two teams playing for the national championship game.  They convinced us as they had no issues with a Texas Tech team that went into Norman, Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago and beat the Sooners.  We’re now projecting the Cowboys will beat the Sooners at home December 3^rd and move on to the BCS championship game.

The Cowboys are now sitting pretty after the Oregon Ducks dismantled the Stanford Cardinal and left Oklahoma State as the only undefeated team to play the favored LSU Tigers.

Houston Cougars – The Cougars become the non-BCS darling after Boise State lost to TCU over the weekend.  The Cougars continue to put up points as they dropped 73 points against the mighty Tulane Green Wave.  If the Cougars can get past Tulsa at the end of the season they’ll be looking at a BCS bid for their program.

Oregon Ducks – The Ducks proved they’re the class of the Pac-12 again trouncing the Stanford Cardinal 53-30 in Palo Alto.  Unfortunately for the Ducks, Alabama gave LSU a tougher game(although Alabama did get to play the game at home) and will be the likely pick for the BCS championship game if Oklahoma State drops a game.  Oregon fans should argue they would defeat LSU at home. A Rose Bowl will still be a nice reward.

Virginia Tech Hokies – The Hokies went into Georgia Tech and came out the victor to put them as the favorite to represent the ACC Coastal Division in the ACC championship game.

Colorado Buffaloes – The Buffaloes get their first victory in the Pac-12.

The Biggest Loser – Stanford Cardinal

The Cardinal were set to leap the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the BCS rankings and avenge their embarrassing loss to Oregon last year.  The Ducks had other plans as they intercepted Andrew Luck two times and convincingly ended Stanford’s bid for the national championship game and Rose Bowl.

Boise State Broncos -The Broncos suffer from a missed field goal to end the game and their undefeated season losing to the TCU Horned Frogs.  A loss at home and an undefeated Houston team officially ends the Broncos chances for a BCS bid this season.  The loss also means they likely won’t even win the Mountain West Conference this year.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – The Yellow Jackets had the ACC Coastal Division under their control with Virginia Tech coming to their place.  Unfortunately they weren’t able to build on their big win against Clemson two weeks before and lost their chance of a BCS bid this season losing to the Hokies.

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Games of the Week

#7 Oregon @ #4 Stanford – If not for the despicable acts of Jerry Sandusky this game would be getting all the hype this week. Oregon looks to use their speed and misdirection to run their way back into the National Championship hunt. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas look to be 100% healthy. Stanford will try to use their size and toughness to slow that attack down. The OL and DL’s really need to control this game for the Cardinal. Look for Stanford to run the ball effectively and Luck to have one of his best games of the year. Pick: Stanford 31 Oregon 27

#19 Nebraska @ #12 Penn State – It will be strange to see a Penn State football game without the presence of Joe Pa. This was a big game before the Sandusky indictment but the Penn State scandal makes this the most intriguing game of the weekend. We believe that the Nittany Lions will come together with the win one for Joe Pa mantra. Nebraska is no pushover and Taylor Martinez is leading his team into “Happy Valley” with a Big 10 Championship in his sights. This game will be all about emotion and that usually helps defense. We like the better defensive team here. Pick: Penn State 17 Nebraska 13

West Virginia @ #23 Cincinnati – Cincinnati is in the driver seat of the Big East right now. They could continue to put separation between them and the pack with a huge win against WVU. The Bearcat defense will face their toughest challenge of the year as Dana Holgerson brings his high powered offense into Cincinnati. Geno Smith will be the key, when he gets going the WVU offense is really good. We think the Cincinnati defense will be just good enough to continue their winning streak. Pick: Cincinnati 35 WVU 31

Upset of the Week

Texas A&M @ #14 Kansas State – We were surprised to see that Texas A&M was a 4.5 point favorite over the Wildcats. Kansas State will need to control the clock with a solid run game and keep Ryan Tannehill on the side line. The Aggies have struggled this year and we believe that will continue. Look for the Wildcats to get back on track at home this weekend.     Pick: KSU 37 Texas A&M 27

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The Biggest Winner – LSU Tigers

LSU prevailed in the November edition of the BCS championship game.  Winning in Tuscaloosa, Alabama almost guarantees the Tigers an invitation to the real championship game in January.  It would take the Tigers to lose a game and Stanford and Oklahoma State to go undefeated to not get invited at this point. They would definitely be invited as a one loss team and jump an undefeated Boise State team.

Although LSU and Alabama played an overtime game to determine the likely SEC champion it wasn’t a pretty journey.  No one outside of the LSU and Bama fans want to watch that rematch again in the BCS game.

Georgia Bulldogs –   Georgia started out slow this season with losses to Boise State and South Carolina but they haven’t looked back since.  The Bulldogs are now 7-2 and sit atop of the SEC East Division after South Carolina dropped their second game in the SEC.  They appear to be the team that will have a shot to knock off LSU in the SEC championship game.

Michigan State Spartans – The Spartans started the week in a three-way tie in the Legends Division in the Big Ten and came out of the weekend as the only team at the top.  Michigan State finishes with Indiana and at Northwestern.  If they win out, they will have a great shot to get to the Rose Bowl playing in the first Big Ten championship game.

UCLA Bruins – The Bruins haven’t been in our bowl projections all season until this week.  Their upset win against Arizona State has them controlling their destiny to win the Pac-12 South Division.  They won’t win the division but will be bowl eligible as they will defeat Colorado at home in a couple of weeks.  Will a bowl eligible season save Rick Neuheisel his job?

Louisville Cardinals - The Cardinals also haven’t touched our bowl projections until this week after they went into Morgantown and upset the West Virginia Mountaineers.  They finish the season at home to Pitt and then on the road at Connecticut and South Florida.  It won’t be easy but they should be able to reach their 6^th victory.

The Biggest Loser – Alabama Crimson Tide

This honor had to be given to the game of the year loser. The Tide missed four long field goals to seal their fate.  If they had lost at LSU there would be a reasonable debate to have the two teams play again but losing at home will keep them out of the championship game.

Nebraska Cornhuskers – After defeating Michigan State the week before the Cornhuskers controlled their destiny in the Legends Division and then gave it all away a week later losing at home to 4-5 Northwestern.  The Big Ten standings are all over the place after each weekend.  The Cornhuskers continued that pattern as did the …

Michigan Wolverines – The Wolverines outgained the Iowa Hawkeyes but gave up two turnovers and lost in Iowa 24-16.  This was a huge game for the Wolverines because victories will be tough at Illinois and home to Nebraska and Ohio State to finish the season.  Their 7-2 record might not look so good in three weeks.

West Virginia Mountaineers – The Big East preseason favorites are now tied with two other teams for fourth place after losing at home to the Louisville Cardinals.  They will need to beat Cincinnati in Cincy this week and get some help if they hope to be invited to the Orange Bowl.

South Carolina Gamecocks – The drama continues at South Carolina after the Gamecocks gave up their one game lead over the Georgia Bulldogs losing at Arkansas.  They need to defeat Florida and hope Auburn or Kentucky can defeat the Bulldogs in Georgia.

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